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How True Is The Transfer Gossip

January, a month that not only represents the start of a new year but it also means that the transfer window has re-opened. Here it is the golden opportunity for clubs across Europe to add much needed personnel for the second half of the season and although it may be big business, it’s not just a lot of money that is generated. That’s because there is an incredible amount of gossip to sift through.

Who is going where is always the central theme with Sky Sports News and the like running on overdrive over the course of a busy four week. However, it is not the satellite TV juggernaut where my focus will be lying in this article. Instead, we’re going to be looking at the BBC.

And in particular the BBC Gossip Column – for the uninitiated it is a daily aggregator of what stories are making the back page headlines, just what big name player has been linked with a move elsewhere and what transfer saga will end up eventually getting bored of.

Now obviously in non transfer-window periods, the column is pretty redundant as no player is going to be moving anywhere in say September or March. At the same time, it is a very relevant tool at the start of each year (and in the close season) as you can begin to get an idea of the big transfer targets.

But then there is another way to look at this and that is to see just how many pieces of gossip are actually true. So what I did was log every rumour that was listed in the BBC Gossip Column across January and then formulated is as a data table.

Here are a couple of caveats:

  • It has to be gossip where player x is moving to club y
  • Not player x is interested in leaving club x
  • No manager rumours included
  • No ‘in the summer’ moves included

Quite simply it had to be a case of a player linked with a club in January and whether or not, that move was completed.

So now we have the outline out of the way, I’m going to not only give you the final result for the month but also take more of a deep dive into the data. But ultimately, we’re going to have to start somewhere and with that in mind lets start with the sample size.

The sample size was 517 players – not all individual (more on that later) and the split of completed and uncompleted rumours was as follows:

CompletedCount% Split
No41780.66%
Yes10019.34%
Total517

As you can see in total, just over four fifths of all pieces of transfer gossip was exactly that gossip. Deals for whatever did not get over the line or to be more clear, they probably weren’t worth the newspaper that they were written on? Harry Kane to Real Madrid anyone?

At the same time this data could be skewed by the fact that if the same player has the same rumour repeated over and over, say Eden Hazard to Real Madrid, then that will only inflate the numbers. So what if we only looked at from a unique data perspective.

From here are sample is then reduced to 237 players, however this also comes with an additional caveat:

  • Some players may well have a confirmed deal and  spurious gossip.

The perfect example of this would be Alvaro Morata, he was linked with a number of Spanish clubs before finally moving to Atletico Madrid. Therefore he will have both a yes and no value in this particular data table and the summary of the more unique strand looks as follows:

CompletedCount% Split
No19180.59%
Yes4619.41%
Total237

And astonishingly the percentage split is almost identical to the first table, therefore we can come to a first conclusion that 80% of what you read in the BBC Gossip Column is for all intents and purposes, nothing more than a device to sell papers or generate clicks.

But who were the names that kept cropping up in January and more importantly did they get the move we were told that was happening, I can’t list all the names otherwise you’d be here until the window re-opens trying to read them all. However, I can provide the top nine (nine because there are so many players joint 10th) and their transfer status:

PlayerCountMoved
Alvaro Morata16Yes
Gonzalo Higuain16Yes
Michy Batshuayi11Yes
Aaron Ramsey10Yes
Denis Suarez10Yes
Callum Hudson-Odoi9No
Tammy Abraham9No
Christian Eriksen8No
Idrissa Gueye8No

And from here we certainly have an interesting pattern, they most recurring pieces of gossip (top five) did actually come to fruition. However, you could counter argue that with the fact that if you repeat something enough times then more often that not it will eventually become true.

Therefore there is an element of ‘getting their in the end’ with the five most recurring rumours and then the next four can be labelled as just wishful thinking. Although in fairness to the Callum Hudson-Odoi and Tammy Abraham deals, they were close to getting completed – especially in the case of the latter.

So we know that 80% of all the gossip data is exactly that gossip, but if you say that gossip enough times it will become true. But who was making the most gossip in terms of clubs wanting to sign players across January,  here are the top 10 ‘busiest teams’ from last month:

 

Club

Count% Split
Chelsea509.67%
Arsenal316.00%
Barcelona265.03%
Real Madrid224.26%
Tottenham224.26%
West Ham224.26%
Manchester United214.06%
Juventus163.09%
Manchester City163.09%
Everton163.09%
PSG152.90%

Yes Chelsea soared to the top of this particular chart, with 50 of the 517 pieces of gossip being connected to Stamford Bridge. A lot of that would have been comprised of Gonzalo based gossip, but at the same time they were linked with a whole host of other players and did no other business to back it up.

Arsenal were involved in 31 pieces of gossip and only signed Denis Suarez on loan, while Tottenham were connected with 22 and of course didn’t sign anyone. So just like in the Summer, all Tottenham transfer gossip, was frankly nothing more than a waste of time.

Five of the Premier League’s ‘big six’ are in the list above (the only team not represented are Liverpool) and none of the quintet did anywhere near the level of business that was reportedly meant to happen. Again you can point to the bigger clubs are just used as a tool to generate headlines.

As well as Tottenham, neither Manchester United or City did any major winter business – although in fairness to the latter they did sign Ante Palaversa and loan him straight back but at the same time it was not expenditure at the level the tabloids would have you believe.

And that brings us nicely to the culprits, just who were the outlets that were guilty of feeding us spoonfuls of gossip by the day. Over 60 newspapers and or websites offered up at least one piece of transfer news in January, here are the top 10 in terms of quantity:

SourceCount% Split
Sun6813.15%
Mirror6011.61%
Mail5911.41%
Sky Sports214.06%
Express193.68%
Star183.48%
Goal163.09%
Telegraph163.09%
Calciomercato152.90%
Marca152.90%

It probably comes as no real surprise that the two league leaders here are the Sun and the Mirror, although one should not forget that for people who consider themselves a little more highbrow the Daily Mail has also been busy when dealing out gossip in January.

Sky Sports pumps transfer news every hour of ever day, so it is perhaps no real surprise that their website does not rank as high when its television station can do all the work, however the highest ranked ‘pure football website’ is that of Goal who served up 16 pieces of headline transfer news.

That is the most recurring providers, but more importantly who are the biggest culprits when it comes to telling transfer tales. If we take the same list above and add their failure rates, here is how it looks:

SourceNo %
Sun91.18%
Mirror86.67%
Mail77.97%
Sky Sports66.67%
Express73.68%
Star83.33%
Goal87.50%
Telegraph75.00%
Calciomercato80.00%
Marca80.00%

And to be honest I don’t know if you would be surprised or not in all fairness, The Sun has more than nine in ten pieces of gossip become exactly that, making it by the far the biggest offender with the website Goal providing eight pieces of gossip and for each of those only one actually turned into a transfer deal.

None of the top ten here come out of this with any real credit, even the best of the worst Sky Sports still only got tow thirds of their transfer gossip correct. I wonder just how that would look if took everything that they said on television at face value?

Interestingly both the foreign outlets Calciomercato and Marca only got one in five rumours correct, something that matches the very first sample. Could a case be made for European papers being even more gossip hungry, that is something to take into consideration

At the end of the day I’m not here to give the tabloids a kicking (well not quite) so we may as well praise some of the good guys, here are the top 10 outlets who had the best percentage success rate:

SourceYesYes %
Leicester Mercury480.00%
Guardian650.00%
Evening Standard541.67%
Express and Star240.00%
Independent436.36%
Sky Sports733.33%
L’Equipe333.33%
Yorkshire Post133.33%
Metro228.57%
Express526.32%

The Leicester Mercury were persistent enough in their story that Vicente Iborra was moving to Villarreal that they managed to get a 80% hit rate, albeit from just five pieces of gossip. While if you read the Guardian you may as well have flipped a coin as to whether a transfer deal would actually come true.

Sky Sports actually got the most right, but as they say a broken clock is always right twice a day. What is staggering though, is that no football outlet managed to get 10 pieces of gossip confirmed as a true piece of news. A sad indictment of where journalism is today.

And perhaps what is even sadder is that these four below nailed their colours to the mast numerous times and didn’t even come up with a result:

SourceYesNo
Teamtalk09
ESPN06
Tuttosport06
Times05

Perhaps these four won’t be your go to destinations when you look for more gossip come the Summer.

And in the Summer it will be a good chance to perhaps do it all over again, first there will be a much bigger sample as the window will be open for longer but also it may well be a chance to build in some quality thresholds for the data aswell and weigh them on strength of outlet.

That is something for consideration and any ideas/feedback would be gratefully received however I will leave you with this summary:

If you didn’t know already, take transfer gossip with a big a pinch of salt as possible as 80% of it is all made up.

I am always available for any football data projects you may have and/or content creation.
If you have any requirements then please feel free to contact me at realfootballmanwordpress@gmail.com with the subject line “Football Data”

I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan

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